March 18, 2011

Libya and the Decision Maker's Dilemma


Now that Muammar Gadhafi supposedly called a cease-fire to his campaign to crush the rebels, let the feel good ism begin. It only took five weeks for those paragons of virtue known as the "international community," specifically the European Union, to screw up the courage to authorize a no-fly zone against a third rate military power. But when you're a no-rate military power like the EU, I guess that's something.

Implementing a no-fly zone is far more complex and resource intensive than its advocates let on. And it's bound to get messy with people getting killed, including civilians. That's why the Euros need NATO, meaning the United States. 

Meanwhile at home, it's so bad on the leadership front that even the French look decisive compared to our greenhorn president. In his book "Diplomacy," Henry Kissinger notes that for decision makers, latitude for action is greatest when available information is at its scarcest; windows of opportunity for bold, decisive leaders to shape events and ensure the national interest. Kissinger, writing for adults, never reckoned on an empty shell chief executive like Obama. Our affirmative action prez, flitting through a succession of jobs in academia and government, leaving no notable achievements, lacks hard experience to inform any meaningful decision making. Thus, Obama, like the know-it-all college freshman who ardently believes in the goodness of internationalism, defers to the consensus of others, certain it's the right thing to do.

Odds are it's Gadhafi who knows what he's doing. The dude will abide by whatever resolutions the Eurocrats put before him, for a time. But bureaucrats, not understanding the Libyan context and operational art, will leave loopholes. Tyrants like Gadhafi, who parse grammar with the same zeal as campus thought police, will exploit those loopholes to murderous effect.

There's the difference between Gadhafi and Obama. One acts as though his life depends on it, and the other couldn't act to save his own.